The more things change, the more they remind us of the past....or 2019

Dated: August 18 2022

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Inflation is soaring, mortgage rates are rising but the real estate market looks oddly familiar.  2019 was a great year in Brandon real estate, actually it was better than 2018 and 2017.  Than the pandemic hit and our market had a 6 week pause where everyone just held on and waited to see what was happening in the world.  Once that pause broke, the real estate market went crazy, setting sales and volume records month after month and year over year, bidding wars starting happening, mortgage rates fell to all time lows and buyers couldn’t find a house to buy.  

The past two years have been unreasonable to maintain in our market, or any market as we are seeing the crash starting to happen around the country now.  But when we compare our market today, to the market in 2019 we see very similar sales numbers and total volume of sales.  We are getting back to a balanced market or even leaning slightly towards a buyers market in certain price ranges here in Brandon right now.  There is one major difference affecting todays market as compared to our market in 2019 and that is mortgage interest rates, in July of 2019 the Insured rate was 2.74% while the conventional mortgage rate was 2.89% as compared to our rates today which are significantly higher at 5.04% for an insured mortgage and the conventional rate today is 5.29%.  

Our market right now is beginning to see the impact of the rising rates, when looking at sales on a month over month basis, we are seeing numbers drop slightly compared to May but more of a drop compared to 2020 and 2021.  The rise in rates will absolutely slow down our market as it is impacting the amount of money a purchaser has access to.  The average selling price in Brandon is $309,000 and a buyer looking to financing that purchase today at 5.29% is looking at a monthly payment of $1768 compared to 2019 when a purchaser buying the same house for $309,000 at a mortgage rate of 2.89% would have a monthly payment of $1382.  Thats a huge change in payment for someone, especially for a first time buyer.  

So what do we recommend for buyers and sellers as we move into the 2nd half of 2022?  

If you are a seller, the market could get a little bumpy for while and pricing will start to come back down to pre-pandemic levels.  This is obviously caused by the increased interest rates but also now because homes are staying on the market longer there is more supply for buyers to choose from.  Be patient, download our Pre-Listing checklist  and when you have a showing make sure your house is looking like a show home, you only get one first impression 

Buyers, after over two years of competing offers and very limited selection on homes, you are now in a position of power if you can afford the current interest rates.  With inventory numbers starting to climb, you have time to take a good look at homes and make sure its the right house for you, you should be able to negotiate terms your are comfortable with rather than blindly competing with other buyers in this market.  Patience is your greatest asset here, download out Home Buyers Guide to see the exact steps your should take to ensure you find the house you have been dreaming of.  

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Ryan Shields

I am a residential specialist with the Shields Group at Royal LePage Martin Liberty in Brandon Manitoba. I am not your "typical" realtor, I consider my self part of the "new breed" of agents. I use te....

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